Duke vs Wake Forest 9/29/2012

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Duke winning 52% of simulations, and Wake Forest 48% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Duke commits fewer turnovers in 15% of simulations and they go on to win 65% when they take care of the ball. Wake Forest wins 55% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Sean Renfree is averaging 314 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (36% chance) then he helps his team win 67%. Joshua Harris is averaging 77 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (35% chance) then he helps his team win 62%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is WF -3

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